Minnesota's top-ranked defense meets a slumping Toronto side on a six-game skid

Minnesota arrives as the clear form team. The Wild are 13-3-4 and have won six straight on the road, while Toronto is 8-10-2 and has lost six straight as a home underdog, four straight overall. Last season's two meetings split: Minnesota won 6-3 in Toronto in January, and Toronto won 4-2 in Minnesota in March. The question tonight is whether Toronto's offense and special teams can offset a defensive gap that the season numbers make large.

That gap is the cleanest piece of evidence. Minnesota allows 2.2 goals per game, rank 1, and 1.9 per game over its last 10. Toronto allows 3.5 per game, rank 20, and 3.7 over its last 10. Minnesota's team save percentage is 91.4%, rank 2, against 89% for Toronto, rank 18. Minnesota also controls more of the shot volume, with a 53.1% shot share, rank 7, to Toronto's 49%, rank 20.

Toronto's case rests on the other end of the ice and on special teams. It scores 3.35 goals per game, rank 10, slightly more than Minnesota's 3.25, rank 11. Its power play converts at 28.1%, rank 5, and its penalty kill succeeds at 86.4%, rank 4, ahead of Minnesota's 79%, rank 10. Even so, Toronto's last outing was a 3-6 home loss to Colorado, a reminder of how quickly its defense has been stretched.

Both teams played two days ago. Minnesota won 2-1 on the road over Montreal when Kirill Kaprizov scored on a power play in the first minute of overtime. On Toronto's side, Colton Sissons is out and Morgan Rielly is day-to-day, which matters for a back end already allowing 3.5 goals per game.

Minnesota is -169 on the moneyline and Toronto +142, after opening at -156 and +131. That is a small move toward Minnesota, which also holds 95% of bets and 92% of money, so the crowd and the price point the same way without much price reaction. The puck line is Minnesota -1.5, with Toronto +1.5 at -175 and Minnesota +145. Minnesota is 13-7 against the spread to Toronto's 9-11, and it has covered four straight puck lines on the road after wins.

The total is 6.5, unchanged from the open, with the Over at +100 and the Under -122. Minnesota has gone under in five straight games, and 35% of its games have gone over the closing total, compared with 55% for Toronto, so the two teams' tendencies pull in different directions. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie.