Giants pass defense meets Washington's thin offense in a near pick'em rematch

The Giants host Washington on Thursday night as a 1.5-point favorite at -113, exactly where the spread opened. That is a thin margin for a team at 5-2-1 facing one at 2-5-1, and the earlier meetings explain some of it. The October 11 game finished 27-27 at Washington, and Washington won 29-21 at MetLife last December. The deciding factors look like the Giants' pass defense against Washington's offense, and whether the scoring runs of both teams hold up.

The Giants allow 177.8 passing yards per game, rank 3. Washington's offense averages 207.1 passing yards per game, rank 21, with Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Washington's own pass defense allows 240 yards per game, rank 29, while the Giants throw for 221 per game, rank 16. The Giants also convert third downs at 40.4%, against 31.1% for Washington. Washington's best counter is on the ground: it rushes for 118.3 yards per game, rank 11, and the Giants allow 123.6, rank 21.

The records may flatter New York. The Giants rank 16th in points scored at 22.8 per game and 21st in yards per play at 5.06, so their results lean on a defense that ranks 11th in points allowed at 21.5. They commit 1.5 turnovers per game, while Washington commits 0.63 and ranks 3rd in turnover margin to the Giants' 11th. The Giants are 6-2 against the spread and Washington 4-4.

Several absences matter. Cam Skattebo is out for the Giants, and Darnell Mooney is questionable. Washington has Chig Okonkwo questionable, and Terry McLaurin and Laremy Tunsil on injured reserve since late October. Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw are done for the season after surgery. Washington's season defensive numbers may not reflect the group that takes the field.

The total is the notable market move. It has dropped 2 points to 42.5 from 44.5, with the Over at -110 and the Under at -111. That fits the Giants' pass defense and Washington's modest offense, but the streaks pull the other way. Washington has gone over in six straight in-division road games, and the Giants in five straight at home in the division. Washington's last three games overall have all gone under, though. Streaks only describe what has happened. The moneyline has edged slightly toward New York at -131, with Washington at +109. Conditions look mild: 49°F, a 7 mph northeast wind and partly cloudy skies.

J.J. McCarthy is questionable with a hip injury from Sunday's win over the Eagles, after saying he would be fine.