Bears Without Caleb Williams: Does Chicago's Ground Game Carry Them Against a Jets Defense Built to Stop the Run?

Let's start with the elephant in the room: Caleb Williams is out. That's not a minor injury note — it rewrites Chicago's offensive ceiling. The Bears are currently #5 in points per game (29.7) and #3 in yards per game (408), but those numbers were built with Williams operating their offense. Whoever steps in is inheriting a system that's leaned heavily on the ground game — #1 in rush yards per game (184.3), #1 in rushes per game (35), #1 in yards per carry (5.3) — and that run-first identity becomes even more dominant with a backup under center.

Here's the problem: the Jets' defense is designed to shut that down. New York ranks #7 against the run (87.3 rush yards allowed per game), allows just 4.2 yards per carry (#18), and forces opponents into pass-heavy situations by limiting rushes to just 20.7 per game (#3). The Jets also rank #2 overall in yards allowed per game (258.3) and #4 in yards per play allowed (4.8). This is a legitimately elite defensive unit, and it's facing a Bears offense now operating at a reduced capacity.

On the Jets' side of the ball, it's also a mess. Breece Hall is out, Adonai Mitchell is out, Mason Taylor is out — that's the running back, a key receiver, and a tight end all unavailable. Aaron Rodgers (or whoever is running this offense) loses significant weapons. The Jets are already averaging just 21.3 points per game (#17), rank #30 in rush yards per game (92.3), and get their QB sacked at a concerning rate (#23). Against a Bears defense allowing only 17.7 points per game (#7) with a 47.6% opponent third-down conversion rate (#3), New York will struggle to move the chains.

The total opened at 44, moved down to 43, and the line movement facts confirm money has come in on the Under. The Bears have hit the Under in each of their last three home games, including three straight after wins at home. None of that is a predictive signal — streaks describe the past — but the structural argument for the Under is legitimate regardless: backup QB, two depleted offensive rosters, strong defenses on both sides.

The Vegas Backed badge on the Under is firing, but let's be precise about what that means. The tracked record is 53-49 (52%) with a -0.73% ROI. That's beating a -4.58% blind-bet baseline, which means it's the better side of this market — but it is not a profitable signal. It's a marginal lean, not a hammer.

On the spread, Chicago moved from -3 to -3.5 with a near-even public split (55/44), which is essentially no movement story. The Jets' moneyline shortened by 14 points — money on the underdog — but with Williams out, that's hard to trust as a meaningful sharp lean rather than early price shopping.

Bottom line: the Williams injury makes Chicago's offensive production projections unreliable, both offenses are shorthanded, and the structural case for the Under is real. The spread feels harder to trust at -3.5 with a backup QB — the Bears' edge shrinks materially without Williams. If you're playing this game, the Under at 43 is the cleaner angle. The spread is genuinely murky.