Ravens Without Lamar Jackson Are Now Bigger Favorites Over Winless Chargers

Two teams in poor form meet Monday night in Baltimore, and the price has moved sharply toward the home side. The Ravens are 4-5 and without Lamar Jackson, who is on injured reserve ahead of thumb surgery, so Joe Fagnano is the quarterback. The Chargers are 0-8 with an 11-game losing streak. The central question is whether Baltimore at -5.5 reflects a real gap, or asks too much of a Ravens team that has not played well lately.

The Chargers' case is weak on both sides of the ball. They score 15.1 points per game (rank 31) and gain 4.68 yards per play (rank 30). On defense they allow 27.4 points per game (rank 25) and 5.65 yards per play (rank 25). Sunday's 44-22 home loss to Houston fit the pattern: Justin Herbert was sacked eight times and threw his NFL-leading 11th interception.

Baltimore is not a clean opponent either. The Ravens score 21 points per game (rank 21), but over their last four games that has dropped to 10.8, while they have allowed 29.3 over the same stretch. They coming off a 33-10 home loss. Their clearest edge is on the ground: 137.8 rushing yards per game (rank 4) against a Chargers defense allowing 122 rushing yards per game (rank 20). Derrick Henry has 45 carries over the last three games, well ahead of Justice Hill's 15. Baltimore's pass defense is a soft spot at 229.8 yards allowed per game (rank 23), and cornerback Nate Wiggins is out with an illness.

The market has moved decisively. Baltimore opened -1.5 and is now -5.5, a notable move of 4 points toward the Ravens. The moneyline went from Ravens -160 to -240, lifting Baltimore's implied win probability from 61.5% to 70.6%. The total, by contrast, is at 38.5, exactly where it opened. That is a low number, consistent with two offenses that struggle to score, though the Chargers have gone over the closing total in 25% of games and the Ravens in 55.6%.

The against-the-spread records complicate the price. The Chargers are 0-7-1 and have failed to cover 10 straight. The Ravens are 2-6-1, with 8 straight failures to cover at home and 6 straight as a home favorite. These streaks describe what has happened rather than what will, but they sit awkwardly beside a Baltimore number that is now much larger than it was at the open.

Herbert is questionable after X-rays showed no fracture in his left middle finger, and Ladd McConkey is questionable and day to day with back spasms. Conditions look manageable: a forecast of 55°F with a 10 mph wind from the north-northwest.

Overall, the Chargers' offensive numbers back the case for Baltimore, while the Ravens' recent scoring slump and cover record temper it.