Ravens Without Lamar Jackson Face Jaguars After a Twelve-Point Spread Flip

Thursday night in Baltimore pairs a team that has lost its starting quarterback with a price that has moved hard. Lamar Jackson is out after right thumb surgery and is headed to injured reserve, so Joe Fagnano leads the Ravens. They are 4-4 and coming off a 10-36 road loss. Jacksonville is 5-2 after a 42-7 home win. Both teams are on four days of rest. The ground game and Jacksonville's secondary are the matchups most likely to decide this.

Baltimore's season numbers are middling: 22.4 points per game (rank 19) and 25.4 allowed (rank 22). The last four games look worse, at 15.8 points scored per game and 26.8 allowed. The clear strength is the run game, 133.5 rushing yards per game (rank 6), led by Derrick Henry. That runs into Jacksonville's rushing defense, which allows 77.4 yards per game (rank 1). Justice Hill is questionable, and guard Olaivavega Ioane is out with a knee sprain.

Jacksonville scores 28 points per game (rank 5) and allows 15.9 (rank 2). Its soft spot is the pass defense, at 253.9 passing yards allowed per game (rank 29). Baltimore's passing offense averages 205.1 yards per game (rank 21), so that edge is less obvious than it looks. Trevor Lawrence runs an offense at 5.92 yards per play (rank 7). Jacksonville is also rank 1 in turnover margin. Seven games is a small sample for all of this.

On injuries, Jacksonville's offensive skill players are questionable: Bhayshul Tuten (ankle and foot, a non-participant at Monday's walkthrough), Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jakobi Meyers. Defensively, nose tackle DaVon Hamilton and safety Eric Murray are done for the season, and safety Antonio Johnson is out. That thins the back end of an already vulnerable pass defense. For Baltimore, Fagnano has an ankle injury and was limited at Monday's walkthrough. Backup Tyler Huntley (toe) is questionable, and the report says he "probably" won't play.

The market has made its call. Jacksonville is now favoured by 9.5, having opened with Baltimore favoured by 2.5. That is a move of 12 points, labelled notable, and the favourite flipped. The total fell from 48.5 to 42.5, down 6 points, also notable. The moneyline sits at Baltimore +357 and Jacksonville -471, and Baltimore's implied win probability went from 43.3% to 21.9%. Jackson's out status is dated 2026-11-01, but the sheet does not tie the move to any single cause.

Baltimore has failed to cover seven straight games at home and is 2-5-1 against the spread this season. Jacksonville has won three straight as an away favourite and gone under the total in three straight on the road. These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions. Public betting splits are not available, so there is no read on how tickets and money are divided. Forecast conditions are 51°F with a 12 mph northwest wind.