Two of the NFL's Worst Offenses Meet in a Preseason Showcase — Don't Overthink It

Let's be direct about what we're working with here: a preseason opener between the Cardinals and Raiders with zero betting market data, no line movement, no public betting percentages, no signal badges, and no algorithmic signals firing. The regular season stats provided are useful as a backdrop, but they're almost entirely irrelevant to a Week 1 preseason game where starters typically play one to two series and the rest of the game is decided by players fighting for roster spots.

That said, let's look at what the regular season numbers actually tell us about these franchises. The Raiders finished 2024 as arguably the worst offense in the NFL — dead last in points per game (14.2), yards per game (247), touchdowns per game (1.5), rush yards per game (77.5), and yards per carry (3.6). They were also sacked an NFL-worst 11.05% of passing plays. This is a team that structurally collapsed on that side of the ball. Their defense was slightly more respectable — #10 in yards per play allowed (5.0) and solid against the run (3.9 yards per carry allowed, #4) — but surrendered 25.4 points per game (#25) partly due to how frequently they were on the field given offensive three-and-outs.

Arizona's offense was more functional, ranking #7 in pass yards per game (233.9) and leading the league in pass play rate (65.92%). Kyler Murray's group was at least capable of moving the ball through the air. Their defense, however, was genuinely bad — #29 in opponent points per game (28.7), #26 in total yards allowed (358.9), and a weak #28 in sacks (4.98). The Cardinals gave up points at a high rate all season.

But again — none of this determines Thursday's outcome. Preseason Week 1 is a developmental game. Coaches are evaluating depth charts, installing new schemes, and protecting veteran starters from injury. The players on the field for the majority of this game won't be the ones reflected in any of these statistics.

Arizona is coming off a brutal 2-8 ATS stretch to close the regular season, including a 5-game miss streak. Las Vegas went 5-5 ATS over the same window. Neither trend carries meaningful weight into an August preseason context.

The honest assessment: there is no credible angle here. No market signals. No system consensus data. No line to even evaluate for movement. Just two rebuilding franchises running their first preseason simulation. If you're looking for a reason to bet this game, the data isn't providing one.