Winless Kings face unbeaten Memphis as spread and total both fall

Memphis arrives 5-0 and Sacramento 0-5, and the teams met five days ago, when the Grizzlies won 123-112 at Sacramento. The Grizzlies are favoured by 8.5, down from an opening 10.5. The factors most likely to decide this are whether a Kings defence ranked 29th can slow a Memphis team that is shooting well, and who is available in the Memphis backcourt.

The team numbers point one way. Sacramento allows 121.3 points per 100 possessions, rank 29, and opponents have an effective field-goal percentage of 59.2% against it. Its net rating is -16.2 points per 100 possessions, rank 30. Memphis has a net rating of 10 points per 100 possessions, rank 3, and is shooting 40.1% from three with a 32.3% offensive rebound rate. Sacramento does play fast, at 104.7 possessions per game, rank 8, while Memphis is at rank 19. All of this is five games, so the ranks can shift quickly.

The injury picture is less settled for Memphis. Ty Jerome, the top expected scorer with a posted points line of 22.5, is listed as questionable with a back issue, and so is Scotty Pippen Jr. Quinten Post is also Day-To-Day with an ankle problem, though the report attached to him refers to Friday's game and calls him doubtful. Cameron Boozer carries no injury tag and just recorded his first career triple-double. Sacramento is without Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud, all Out and due for re-evaluation in roughly one to two weeks.

The spread moved 2 points toward Sacramento, a notable move, even though Memphis holds 78% of bets and 61% of money. That is reverse line movement against both majorities. The moneyline did the same: Memphis is now -368 and Sacramento +285, and the implied win probability for Memphis fell from 83% to 78.6% while 92% of bets stayed on the Grizzlies. Against that, Memphis is 5-0 against the spread and Sacramento 1-4, so recent results favour the side that has become cheaper.

The total fell 4 points, from 234.5 to 230.5, toward the Under, with 80% of bets and 77% of money on the Over. This is also reverse line movement. The scoring evidence conflicts. Sacramento allows 126.8 points per game, rank 27, and 80% of its games have gone over the closing total. Memphis allows 106.2 points per game, rank 5, and only 20% of its games have gone over.

The team ratings and recent results favour Memphis, while the price has softened against it. Jerome's status is the main variable, and nothing here shows how it would change the number. Only the referee's name, John Goble, is available, with no tendencies data.