Winless-ish Clippers host Pelicans: does New Orleans' pace outweigh its defensive problems?

The Clippers are 1-7 and have lost seven straight, yet they host a New Orleans team that is only 4-5 and is a 1.5-point favourite on the road. That price is exactly where it opened. The questions are whether New Orleans' pace and scoring can overwhelm a Clippers side missing Brandon Ingram and Isaiah Jackson, both out Sunday, and whether the Pelicans' own defence gives enough back to keep the game close.

On offense the season numbers favour the visitors. New Orleans scores 120.2 points per game, rank 3, and plays at 106.6 possessions per game, rank 2. The Clippers score 109.1 per game, rank 25, with an offensive rating of 105.3 points per 100 possessions, rank 26. Net rating tells the same story: the Clippers sit at -8.8, rank 25, and New Orleans at 1.2, rank 19. The Clippers also turn the ball over on 19.4% of possessions, while New Orleans forces turnovers on 16.4%.

New Orleans is far from airtight, though. It allows 118.8 points per game, rank 25, with a defensive rating of 111.5, rank 18. The Clippers' defensive rating is 114.1, rank 24, so neither side stops anyone consistently. Where the Clippers can hang is from three: 38.2% on a 42.5% three-point attempt rate. That combination can swing a fast game, but it comes from eight games, and three-point shooting is volatile. Their last outing was a 116-117 home loss; New Orleans lost 109-115 at home last time out.

Absences sit mostly on the Clippers' side. Bradley Beal (knee) is also out, while New Orleans is without center Yves Missi (knee). The home team won all four meetings last season, but those games carry little weight now.

The total is the notable market move. It has risen to 230.5 from 227.5, a three-point move toward the Over. The spread is unchanged at New Orleans -1.5, with prices of -112 on the Clippers and -111 on New Orleans. On the moneyline, New Orleans is -124 and the Clippers -103, a small shift toward the Pelicans. Bets are 62% on New Orleans and money is 70%, and the small move went the same direction as both.

Trend records add some colour. New Orleans is 6-3 against the spread, and 66.7% of its games have gone over the closing total; it has gone over in five straight on the road and covered three straight road games. The Clippers are 4-4 against the spread, with 50% of their games going over. Against that, New Orleans has lost eight straight on the road after a loss. The evidence favours New Orleans' offense and the higher total, but the thin spread and samples under ten games per team keep the case modest.