Warriors Without Curry and Green: Does Their Offensive Edge Hold Against the Clippers?

Golden State is a 2.5-point home favourite over a Clippers team that has started 1-4, but the Warriors are missing Stephen Curry, who is out for rest, and Draymond Green, who is out with a back injury. The central question is whether Golden State's season-long offensive advantage survives those absences against a Clippers offence that has struggled to score.

The samples are small, five games for the Clippers and six for the Warriors, so treat the numbers loosely. The offensive gap is wide. Golden State's offensive rating is 115.7 points per 100 possessions, rank 6, against 102.9, rank 29, for the Clippers. The defences are closer: the Warriors allow 113.8 points per 100 possessions, rank 22, and the Clippers 111.2, rank 18. Net rating is 1.9, rank 14, for Golden State and -8.3, rank 23, for Los Angeles.

Two possession-level numbers also favour the home side. The Clippers' turnover rate is 21.9% against 17.2% for the Warriors, and Golden State rebounds 33.9% of its own misses against 25.7% for Los Angeles. The sheet does not split the Warriors' numbers by who played, so it is unclear how much of that offensive rating carries over without Curry. He scored 31 in Friday's 112-95 home win over the Lakers. Gui Santos is listed day-to-day with a report calling him probable.

The Clippers have their own gaps. Brandon Ingram is out and set to miss at least one more week, and Bradley Beal and Max Strus are also out. Darius Garland is the top expected scorer on the roster that is left. Los Angeles arrives off a 101-127 road loss, while Golden State is coming off that home win. Both teams have had two days of rest.

Recent meetings are mixed. The Clippers won the preseason game 104-101 and the March game at Chase Center 114-101. The Warriors won the April 16 game 126-121. Those results involved different rotations and, in the preseason, a game that did not count.

The spread has stayed at Golden State -2.5 since it opened, with 73% of bets and 70% of money on the Warriors. The moneyline is Golden State -132 and Clippers +110, with no move of note. Ticket share is heavier there, at 84% on Golden State against 72% of the money. The total is 220.5, up from 219.5. The sheet calls that minor, so it carries no weight, and 76% of bets and 74% of money are on the Over. Golden State has gone under in four straight home games, which is a description of what has happened, not a forecast. The streak board also shows Golden State with 4 straight covers overall but 11 straight failures to cover as a home favourite. The Clippers have 4 straight covers on the road in division games. Those streaks point in different directions. Officials data amounts to a name, Nick Buchert, with no tendencies available.

Overall, the efficiency and turnover numbers favour Golden State, and the market agrees. The absences, the small samples and the conflicting streaks keep the evidence thin.