Short-handed Pacers meet Denver in Mexico City: can depth hold up?

Denver arrives in Mexico City at 4-3 and ninth in the Western Conference, facing an Indiana team that is 3-6, 11th in the East and badly short of bodies. The central question is whether a depleted Pacers rotation can hold up against a Denver side that won both meetings last season, 135-120 in Indiana and 117-100 in Denver.

Indiana's injury list is the biggest factor. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a hamstring injury and was reported in late October to be missing at least two weeks. T.J. McConnell is also out with a hamstring problem and remains week-to-week, while Ben Sheppard is expected to miss months after surgery on a torn meniscus. Johnny Furphy is out with a knee issue and has been practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom. Kelly Oubre Jr. is day-to-day with a calf problem. The Pacers had 11 players on the sideline against Atlanta and used only six in a 108-104 loss, though they bounced back to beat Memphis 107-103 on Wednesday.

Denver has its own absences, but they look less damaging. DeMar DeRozan is day-to-day with lower-back spasms and was ruled out Wednesday. Spencer Jones is out with a hamstring injury, and Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain and due to be re-evaluated in six weeks. Without DeRozan on Wednesday, Denver beat Toronto 128-109, with its three-time MVP posting 32 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds for his third triple-double this season. One commentary piece argues the roster was never built to withstand a down year from that player, which ties Denver's outlook heavily to one man.

Indiana's streaks look bleak but need context. The Pacers have lost seven straight at home, yet this game is in Mexico City, so the home label is largely nominal. They have also gone under the total in four straight at home and three straight overall, which fits a short-handed roster. Those are descriptive runs, not predictions.

The evidence conflicts mainly on scoring. The under streaks point toward lower totals, but Denver scored 128 against Toronto and 135 in its most recent meeting with Indiana. Both of those earlier meetings came last season, when rosters and health may look nothing like tonight's. Team records rest on seven and nine games, a small sample.

Overall, the health picture and last season's results point toward Denver, while the scoring evidence is mixed and the samples are thin.