Phoenix's Shooting Edge Against Charlotte's Offence, Despite Suns' Poor Defence and Short Rest

Phoenix is a 6.5-point home favourite at -112 against a Charlotte team that has lost three straight on the road, and the price is exactly where it opened. The question is whether a Suns side with a poor defence can exploit the league's weakest shooting offence, or whether Phoenix's short rest and uneven results narrow the gap. Both teams are early in the season, Charlotte at 4-7 and Phoenix at 4-6, so every number here rests on a small sample.

Charlotte's problem is scoring. The Hornets have an offensive rating of 100.2 points per 100 possessions, rank 30, and an effective field-goal percentage of 47.9%, rank 30. Phoenix is the opposite on that side: an effective field-goal percentage of 55%, rank 6, and an offensive rating of 112.8, rank 14. The Suns' weakness is defence, with a defensive rating of 116.9, rank 27, which gives a struggling Charlotte offence some room.

Charlotte's defence is harder to read. It allows 110.4 points per game, rank 9, but its defensive rating is 113.8, rank 23, and opponents are shooting 56.4% effective field-goal. The slow pace, 97.8 possessions per game at rank 27, helps explain the gap between those ranks. Net rating favours the Suns, at -4.1 and rank 20 against Charlotte's -13.6 and rank 27, though neither figure is good.

Charlotte is short-handed. Brandon Miller is out with a groin injury, and Dennis Schroder and Kon Knueppel are both out with hamstring strains, with Knueppel due to be re-evaluated in four weeks. Grant Williams is marked out, although the accompanying report calls him probable, so his status is murky. Moussa Diabate is day-to-day with a quadriceps issue and is listed as probable. Phoenix is playing its third game in four nights, though it won its last outing 133-110 at home.

The total is 213.5 with both sides at -112, also unchanged from the open. Phoenix has gone under in six straight at home and Charlotte under in three straight on the road, yet Phoenix's games have gone over the closing total 60% of the time this season against 36.4% for Charlotte. Charlotte's slow pace pulls one way, while Phoenix's 100.5 possessions per game, rank 22, and weak defence pull the other.

Against the spread, Charlotte is 4-7 and Phoenix 3-7, so neither has rewarded backers, and Charlotte has failed to cover three straight on the road. Last spring's meetings split, Phoenix winning 111-99 at home and Charlotte winning 127-107 at home, which says little about rosters this depleted. The moneyline is Phoenix -266, Charlotte +201, essentially unchanged. Overall, the evidence points toward Phoenix on shot-making and net rating, while its defence, short rest and spread record keep the case from being one-sided.