Winless-streak Bucks host a shorthanded Hawks team on a cover slump

Milwaukee is 1-12 and 15th in the Eastern Conference, carrying nine straight losses overall and five straight at home. Atlanta is 7-6 and fourth in the East. The central question is whether the Hawks, who have their own recent problems, can take advantage of a team in that kind of slide. They lost 125-117 in overtime to Chicago on Friday in an NBA Cup game, and they have failed to cover the spread in four straight games.

The records and recent form point clearly toward Atlanta. The Bucks lost 107-99 at Orlando on Friday and 123-112 to the Lakers on Wednesday. Both teams played Friday night, so rest is comparable. Milwaukee's home form has been as poor as its overall form, and the five-game home losing streak means Fiserv Forum has offered no obvious edge this season.

The recent meetings also favor Atlanta, though only loosely. The Hawks won 131-113 in Milwaukee on March 5 and 122-99 at home on March 14. Milwaukee took the January 19 meeting 112-110 in Atlanta. Those games were played last season, and with the Bucks at 1-12 now, they are weak evidence for this one.

Injuries are the main point against a one-sided read. Atlanta has four players out. Kingston Flemings (back) has been ruled out for Sunday, and Keshon Gilbert (knee) and Asa Newell (toe) were ruled out Friday and remain out. Mouhamed Gueye (foot) is ready to begin on-court activities and will be re-evaluated in four weeks. Two of the four are guards. Milwaukee's only listed absence is Ousmane Dieng (finger). Four absences is a real hit to rotation depth, and it is the clearest reason the standings gap may overstate how lopsided this game is.

Atlanta's recent streaks suggest a team that has not been dominating despite the record. Its last four road games have all gone under the total, and it has failed to cover in four straight games overall. Streaks describe what has happened and do not predict anything. Still, they sit alongside the overtime loss to a Chicago team that was 1-9 going into that game, and they temper the case built on the standings alone.

The evidence conflicts. Season records, Milwaukee's nine-game skid and the March results all favor Atlanta. The Hawks' short rotation, their cover slump and their Friday loss to a struggling Bulls team all work against a clean read. Neither side has shown recent form that makes a convincing case, and the Hawks' depth issues are the one concrete factor that could narrow the gap between the two teams on Sunday night at 8:00 PM ET.