Memphis Tigers at South Florida: Last Year's Shootout Meets an Under Streak

Memphis travels to Tampa to face South Florida on Thursday, November 12, at 8:00 PM ET, and the clearest reference point is last year's meeting. Memphis won that one 34-31 on October 25, 2025, at home, a one-score game with plenty of points on both sides. The question tonight is whether that scoring pattern carries over or whether South Florida's recent low-scoring run sets the tone.

That run is the sharpest piece of context in the game. South Florida has gone under the total in 3 straight games, and the same 3-game run holds at home. A streak describes what has happened rather than what will, and three games is a small sample. Still, it pulls in the opposite direction from last year's high-scoring result.

Memphis's recent usage shows a heavy run workload and a passing game spread across several targets. Jaylin Carter has 62 carries over the team's last 3 games, with Manny Covey adding 24. Marcus Stokes has led the team in pass attempts in 3 of its last 3 games, including 35 attempts against Army Black Knights on October 31. Stonka Burnside has 18 receptions over the last 3 games, Hunter Tipton 16, Jemyri Davis 15 and Jermane Hayes 14.

South Florida's workload is lighter by comparison. Luke Kromenhoek attempted 21 passes against East Carolina Pirates on November 6 and has led the team in attempts in 2 of its last 3 games, so the passing load has not been fully his every week. D.J. Crowther has 44 carries over the last 3 games and Jason Collins Jr. has 16. Bryson Rodgers has 11 receptions, Cameron Seldon 9, and tight end Wyatt Sullivan 6. Each of those totals is lower than its Memphis counterpart's over the same span. That fits a lower-volume offense and sits comfortably with the under streak, though the connection is loose and rests on three games.

Neither team reports an injury, so the usage patterns above should not be disrupted by a forced change. The forecast is 66°F with a 9 mph northwest wind and partly cloudy skies, mild conditions that do not point to a weather effect on either passing game.

Overall the picture is mixed and thin. Memphis's heavier recent volume and last year's 34-31 result point toward scoring, while South Florida's 3 straight unders and lighter workloads point the other way. Neither side of that argument is strong evidence on its own, and the single prior meeting is a year old.