Buffalo's Form Against Central Michigan's Pass Defense in a Low-Efficiency Wednesday Matchup

Central Michigan visits Buffalo on Wednesday night at Broadview Stadium in a game between two offenses near the bottom of FBS in efficiency. Buffalo is 7-3 and a 3-point favourite, while Central Michigan is 5-5. The central question is whether Buffalo's record and recent form outweigh underlying numbers that look much closer than the standings.

Neither offense moves the ball well. Central Michigan averages 4.89 yards per play (rank 122) and Buffalo 4.6 (rank 130). Both lean on the run. Buffalo's Messiah Burch has 78 carries over the team's last 3 games, and quarterback Jason Wright threw only 14 passes in the most recent one. Central Michigan's Jadyn Glasser attempted 19 in his team's last game.

The passing matchup is the sharpest contrast. Central Michigan allows 164.7 passing yards per game (rank 9) and faces a Buffalo passing offense that gains 164.6 per game (rank 125). Central Michigan's own passing offense, at 126.6 per game, ranks 130, but it meets a Buffalo pass defense ranked 59. On the ground, both rush defenses sit at rank 88 and rank 87, while the offenses rank 30 (Central Michigan) and 41 (Buffalo). That points toward a run-heavy game with the ground yardage flowing both ways.

Recent results favour Buffalo, though not cleanly. The Bulls have won 5 straight and covered 6 straight, and they scored 29.5 points per game over their last 4. Central Michigan has covered 4 straight overall, and it has allowed only 15.8 points per game over its last 4. But it has lost 4 straight as an away underdog and failed to cover its last 3 in that role. Both teams won 28-7 last time out. Central Michigan won last year's meeting 38-19, but that game was played at Central Michigan and says little about this one.

Turnovers offer a small edge to the visitors. Central Michigan takes the ball away 1.6 times per game and ranks 12 in turnover margin, while Buffalo takes it away 0.9 times per game and ranks 21. In a game where yards will be scarce, a short field could matter more than usual.

The market agrees with the closeness of the picture. Buffalo opened at -2.5 and now sits at -3, with the moneyline at Buffalo -139 and Central Michigan +115. Both moves are small. The total is 43.5, unchanged from the open. Central Michigan games have gone over the total 30% of the time this season, against 50% for Buffalo. The forecast is 44°F with a 9 mph southwest wind, mild enough that it should not shape the scoring much.

Overall, Buffalo has the record, the home field and the streaks. Central Michigan has the stronger pass defense and the better turnover numbers. Two weak offenses make this a low-margin game.