Ole Miss Passing Offense Against Auburn's Pass Defense: Does the Total Move Fit?

Ole Miss hosts Auburn as an 11.5-point favourite, and the game turns on one mismatch: an Ole Miss passing offense averaging 284.9 passing yards per game (rank 20) against an Auburn defense allowing 250.7 passing yards per game (rank 111). Trinidad Chambliss is the Ole Miss quarterback, and Byrum Brown starts for an Auburn offense that has had trouble moving the ball efficiently.

The per-play numbers back that up. Ole Miss gains 6.1 yards per play (rank 44) and scores 36 points per game (rank 22). Auburn gains 5.08 yards per play, rank 113, and has scored 19.8 points per game over its last 4 games, below its season figure of 25.4. Auburn also arrives off a 17-38 home loss. The Ole Miss defense is the softer side of its profile, though: it allows 5.47 yards per play (rank 87) and 233 passing yards per game (rank 100). Auburn's defense is better on a per-play basis, at rank 62, so the visitors have a route to keeping the game close.

Red-zone finishing adds to the Ole Miss case. It turns 96.2% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns, and Auburn's opponents have scored touchdowns on 95.2% of their trips. Both teams have played only seven games, so these rates rest on small samples.

The spread opened at Ole Miss -11.5 and sits there, with prices of -111 and -110. Tickets are 59% on Auburn, but money is 47% Ole Miss and 53% Auburn, roughly even, and with no movement there is little to read into the split. The moneyline is Ole Miss -469, Auburn +350, with 97% of bets and 88% of money on Ole Miss, again with no move of note.

The total is where the market moved. It went from 55.5 to 57.5, up 2 points toward the Over, which the sheet rates as notable. That happened while 62% of bets were on the Under, which makes it reverse line movement; money is 52% Over, roughly even. The trend evidence conflicts. Ole Miss has gone under in four straight home games in this total range, yet 57.1% of its games this season have gone over the closing total. Auburn has gone over three straight on the road after a loss, though only 42.9% of its games overall have gone over. These streaks describe what has happened and do not set the number.

Ole Miss has won 11 straight as a home favourite, but it is 3-4 against the spread this season and Auburn is 2-5. Neither side has an injury reported, and the forecast of 65°F with a 5 mph wind makes weather a minor factor. Recent news is not available, and the teams have not met in the last 400 days.