Drake's Two-Game Dominance Meets South Dakota's Leaky Defense at a 13.5-Point Price

Drake is a 13.5-point favorite at the Knapp Center against a South Dakota team that is 1-3. The question is how much weight a two-game Drake sample deserves. The Bulldogs are 2-0 with an average scoring margin of 30 points per game, while South Dakota arrives on three days of rest after a 76-87 home loss.

South Dakota's problem is on the defensive end. It allows 83.3 points per game (rank 130) and has a defensive rating of 108.9 points per 100 possessions (rank 258). Opponents are shooting 58% effective field-goal percentage and 44.6% from three against the Coyotes. Offense keeps the profile respectable: 87.5 points per game (rank 47). The net rating of 7.1 points per 100 possessions still ranks only 212th.

Drake's defense is the sharpest contrast. The Bulldogs allow 58 points per game (rank 15) and a defensive rating of 81.6 (rank 24). They have forced turnovers on 31.6% of opponent possessions, and opponents are shooting 45.8% effective field-goal percentage. South Dakota gives the ball away on 20.9% of its possessions, so that pressure point is real. Drake also rebounds 45.2% of its own misses, which matters against a South Dakota team that takes 43.7% of its shots from three while making 29.7%.

The total of 161.5 pulls the evidence in two directions. South Dakota plays fast, at 76 possessions per game (rank 46), and 66.7% of its games have gone over the closing total. Drake is slower at 70.8 possessions (rank 145), has gone under in three straight home games and has no overs in its two games this season. Neither side of that is strong evidence, since both are tiny windows.

The individual scoring picture is thin but clear. Vince Buzelis leads South Dakota with 19 points and 31.3 minutes per game over the last 3 games. Jon Carroll is averaging 20.5 points in 26 minutes for Drake over the last 2. Those windows are short, so they describe recent form more than established roles.

The market has not moved. The spread opened at Drake -13.5 and sits there, with prices of -110 on Drake and -112 on South Dakota. The total is unchanged at 161.5, and the moneyline of Drake -1171 and South Dakota +668 is essentially where it opened. South Dakota is 0-3 against the spread this season and Drake is 0-1, but those records are too small to carry much weight. Drake's profile fits a large favorite, and the number already reflects that. The open question is whether two games of elite defense hold up against an opponent that scores at a high rate.