Missouri's Blowout Opener Against Saint Louis's Smaller Win: How Much Is Real?

Both teams have played exactly one game, so everything here rests on a single opener each. Missouri won 111-50 at home. Saint Louis won 92-67 at home. They have not met in the last 400 days. The central question is how much of Missouri's lopsided opener carries over, and the price suggests only part of it: Missouri is a 2.5-point favourite, not a big one.

On efficiency, the gap favours Missouri. Missouri's offensive rating is 162.8 points per 100 possessions, rank 3, against Saint Louis at 131.8, rank 64. Defensively, Missouri allows 74.8 points per 100 possessions, rank 59, and Saint Louis allows 94.6, rank 152. Net rating is 87.9, rank 5, for Missouri and 37.2, rank 110, for Saint Louis. The sheet says nothing about how strong either opening opponent was, which limits what these ranks can tell us.

Missouri's profile has features that tend to be unstable after one game: a 5.9% turnover rate, a 41.4% offensive rebound rate and 45.2% three-point shooting. Saint Louis's clearest edge in style is getting to the line, with a free-throw rate of .491 against .261 for Missouri. Saint Louis also shot well, with an effective field-goal percentage of 67.3%, rank 20. By minutes and scoring, Jason Crowe Jr. (23 points per game over the last game) and Kennard Davis Jr. (19) lead Missouri, while Quentin Jones and Kellen Thames each scored 15 for Saint Louis. No injuries are reported for either side.

One news item adds context. Saint Louis forward Robbie Avila was granted a preliminary injunction Thursday to play this season. He does not appear in the rotation table, and the sheet does not say whether he plays tonight, so it is not settled. The venue is Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, with Missouri listed as the home team; the sheet gives no indication of how that affects the game.

The market is quiet. Missouri opened at -3.5 and is now -2.5, a one-point move toward Saint Louis that the sheet labels minor, so it carries no information. Spread prices are Missouri -114 and Saint Louis -112. The moneyline is Missouri -149 and Saint Louis +118, with no move of note. The total is 162.5 and unchanged from the open, with Over -112 and Under -111. Public betting splits are not available.

The streak board is descriptive only. Missouri has gone over the total in 4 straight games overall and in 3 straight at home. Saint Louis has failed to cover in 4 straight road games after a win and has gone under in 3 straight in that spot. These runs reach back beyond this season's single game. Saint Louis comes in with 4 days since its last game, Missouri with 3.

Overall, the efficiency numbers point toward Missouri, while the short spread suggests the market is discounting a one-game sample. With one game apiece, the evidence is thin and the gap between these teams is uncertain.