UConn's Early Defense Against Ohio State's Leaky Defense: Is 10.5 Enough?

UConn hosts Ohio State in Hartford on Friday as a 10.5-point favorite, with both teams only three games into the season. The central question is whether UConn's early defensive dominance meets an Ohio State offense that has scored well but defended poorly.

UConn is 3-0 and allows 54.7 points per game, rank 9, with a defensive rating of 78.4 points allowed per 100 possessions, rank 11. Opponents have posted a 39.4% effective field-goal percentage against it, and UConn has forced turnovers on 27.3% of possessions. Its last game was an 83-41 home win. Ohio State is 2-1 with a defensive rating of 110.1, rank 271, and opponents are shooting 53.3% effective field-goal against it.

Ohio State's offense keeps this from being one-sided on paper. The Buckeyes score 85.3 points per game, rank 57, with an offensive rating of 120.1, rank 113, and a free-throw rate of .503. UConn is close: 84.7 points per game, rank 59, and an offensive rating of 121.8, rank 102. The gap between the teams is therefore mostly defensive. Ohio State shoots 27.8% from three on a 41.1% attempt rate, while UConn opponents are hitting 26.6%. Individually, John Mobley Jr. is averaging 19.3 points over Ohio State's last three games and Braylon Mullins 17.7 for UConn. Three games is a thin sample for every figure here.

Neither team has an injury listed, but a news report says UConn starting forward Nik Khamenia will have surgery on his left foot and be reevaluated in six-to-eight weeks. He left Monday's game against Wagner with a lower-body injury. How much that changes UConn's rotation is unclear, and the early defensive numbers were built partly with him.

The market sees UConn as a strong favorite and has barely moved. The spread opened at UConn -9.5 and sits at -10.5, a small move, with prices of UConn -108 and Ohio State -114. The moneyline is UConn -562 and Ohio State +376, an implied UConn win probability of 84.9% against 83.8% at the open. UConn holds 95% of moneyline bets and 96% of the money, and the price moved the same way, which is the ordinary direction. The total of 146.5 is exactly where it opened.

The streaks fit the same picture but describe the past rather than predict anything. UConn has won 10 straight at home, has covered five straight at home after a win, and has gone under the total in five straight home games. Ohio State is 0-3 against the spread. Both teams have seen 33.3% of their games go over the closing total this season. The evidence points consistently toward UConn's defense as the deciding factor, and the open questions are how well three early games translate and what Khamenia's absence does to the Huskies.