Rider's one-game collapse against a small home price: does Rider's -1.5 hold up?

Rider is a 1.5-point home favourite tonight at Alumni Gymnasium, and that price sits awkwardly against the early evidence. The Broncs lost 57-95 on the road in their only game. New Hampshire won its opener 59-55, also on the road. Both teams have played one game, so every figure below is a single-game sample and should carry little weight.

The efficiency numbers lean heavily toward New Hampshire. Rider's defensive rating is 130.8 points allowed per 100 possessions, rank 304, and its offensive rating is 78.1 points per 100 possessions, rank 314. Its net rating is -52.8, rank 333. New Hampshire's net rating is 11.1, rank 197. Its defensive rating of 81.4 (rank 92) is much stronger than its offence at 92.5 (rank 259).

The shooting and turnover profiles push the same way, with one caveat. Rider's opponent shot 60% effective field-goal and 53.8% from three in that loss, which is the kind of outlier a lone game can produce. New Hampshire's own offence was not good: 40% effective field-goal, rank 266, and 27.3% from three. The matchup question is turnovers. Rider gave the ball away on 23.3% of possessions and forced only 13.8%. New Hampshire forced turnovers on 23.7% of possessions while committing them on 17.2%. New Hampshire also got to the line far more often, at .711 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt against Rider's .351.

The market has not moved. Rider opened at -1.5 and is still -1.5, with prices of -112 on Rider and -116 on New Hampshire. The moneyline is Rider -130 and New Hampshire +100, with no movement of note from the open. With no movement, the price is a level and not a signal, and it is hard to square with the one-game numbers. The total is 141.5, also unchanged, at -114 on both sides. Rider's pace of 72.8 possessions per game (rank 71) is faster than New Hampshire's 65.7 (rank 134). Rider's opener went over its closing total, and New Hampshire's did not.

Rider is on a run of three straight losses and three straight games failing to cover. That describes what has happened and does not predict tonight. Both teams are on three days of rest and no injuries are reported for either side. Myles Blackley led New Hampshire with 15 points in 32 minutes in its last game. Bryce Baker led Rider with 11 points in 30 minutes.

The evidence points to New Hampshire on efficiency and turnovers, and to Rider only through the home price. One game apiece is too little to settle that conflict. Public betting splits are not available for this game.