BYU's Elite Offence Meets Montana State's Weak Defence at 22.5 Points

BYU hosts Montana State at the Marriott Center as a 22.5-point favourite, a number that has not moved since it opened. The teams have not met recently, and the game is indoors. The central question is whether BYU's elite offence can pull away from a Montana State defence that ranks 285th in defensive rating, or whether a very large number asks too much from a three-game sample.

BYU is 3-0, and the offence is the story. It scores 100 points per game (rank 17), with an offensive rating of 141.6 points per 100 possessions (rank 6) and an effective field-goal percentage of 66.1% (rank 4). Robert Wright III is averaging 25 points per game over those three games, with Collin Chandler at 15. BYU's average scoring margin of 22.7 points per game is in the neighbourhood of tonight's spread, but it comes from only three games.

Montana State is 1-1 with a net rating of 2.7 points per 100 possessions (rank 234). Its offence is mid-table, with an offensive rating of 114.9 (rank 156). The defence is the weak point: 112.2 points allowed per 100 possessions (rank 285) and an opponent effective field-goal percentage of 56%. Jeremiah Davis leads the rotation at 17 points per game over the two games. Two games is a very small sample.

BYU is not airtight at the other end, which is where the evidence pushes back on a pure blowout story. Its defensive rating is 109.2 (rank 257), it allows 77.3 points per game (rank 100), and opponents are shooting 36.5% from three against it. Both teams take about half their shots from deep, 50% for BYU and 51.7% for Montana State, so variance is built in. Montana State forces turnovers on 18.2% of possessions, more often than BYU gives the ball away at 13.2%, which is a small route to extra possessions.

The market has not reacted. The spread sits at BYU -22.5 (-119), with Montana State at -106, and the total is 163.5 with the Over at -111 and the Under at -112, both unchanged from the open. The moneyline is BYU -6152. Tickets are lopsided, 99% on BYU, and 87% of the money is on BYU as well, yet the price did not budge. Montana State has gone over the closing total in both of its games, 100% in a tiny sample, while BYU's games have gone over 66.7% of the time.

Rest and form are minor factors. BYU has won three straight, including three straight at home after a win, and comes in two days after a 98-82 home victory. Montana State had five days after an 83-70 home win. Neither team has an injury reported. Overall, the evidence points to a clear BYU edge in shooting and scoring, tempered by two defences that both rank poorly and by samples too small to separate a dominant team from a hot start.