Maryland Flips to Favorite at Georgetown on One-Game Evidence and a Reversed Price

Georgetown beat Maryland 70-60 at Maryland in the last meeting, on 2025-11-07, but the price for this rematch has reversed. Georgetown opened as a 1.5-point favorite. Maryland is now favored by 1.5 at Capital One Arena, a 3-point move toward the Terrapins that flipped the favorite. The central question is whether one game per team justifies that shift.

The sample is the first caveat. Each team is 1-0 and won at home five days ago, Maryland 96-67 and Georgetown 80-58. Every season figure comes from that single game, so the ranks are noisy. Within that, Maryland's offense stands out: a 138.3 offensive rating (rank 31) against Georgetown's 116.3 (rank 158). Georgetown's defensive rating of 88.2 (rank 117) is also better than Maryland's 93.6 (rank 146), so the two units pull in opposite directions.

The component numbers are lopsided in places. Maryland rebounded 63.6% of its own misses and got to the line at a .431 free-throw rate, against .270 for Georgetown. Georgetown protected the ball better, with an 11.6% turnover rate to Maryland's 18.7%. Georgetown held its opponent to a 46% effective field-goal percentage, while Maryland allowed 54.7%. Neither team shot well from three: Maryland at 25% and Georgetown at 26.9%. Maryland's big scoring night did not come from perimeter shooting.

Individual lines come from one game too. Andre Mills scored 22 points in 23 minutes for Maryland, and Pharrel Payne added 13. For Georgetown, Jaland Lowe scored 23 points in 34 minutes and Vince Iwuchukwu scored 21. Neither team has an injury reported.

The market agrees with Maryland's offensive profile. The moneyline is Maryland -133 and Georgetown +108, and Georgetown's implied win probability fell from 53.5% to 48.1%, a notable shift. Spread pricing is nearly even, Georgetown -106 and Maryland -122, so the extra cost sits on the Terrapins. The total is 146.5, down from 147.5, a small move that says little. Maryland's game went over its closing total, while Georgetown's did not.

The streaks cut both ways. Georgetown has failed to cover five straight at home and gone under the total in three straight home games, which fits a team being priced down. Maryland has lost three straight on the road after a win, which does not fit a road favorite. These runs describe past results and do not predict this game.

Overall, the evidence is thin and mixed. Maryland's scoring efficiency and rebounding give the price move a basis, but it rests on one game against an unknown level of opposition. Georgetown's cleaner ball security, last year's win and the home setting keep the matchup from reading as lopsided.