Lehigh Is the Home Favourite, but Marist Has the Better Early Numbers

Lehigh is a 2.5-point home favourite at Stabler Arena, priced at -147 on the moneyline, even though the early-season numbers do not favour the Mountain Hawks. Both teams are 1-2 after three games, so everything here rests on a very small sample. The last meeting went to Marist 78-55 on November 26, 2025, at Marist.

The clearest separation is Lehigh's offence. The Mountain Hawks score 93 points per 100 possessions, rank 333, and their effective field-goal percentage of 41.8% ranks 342. They take threes at a 40.2% attempt rate and make 25.8%. Their net rating is -15.2 points per 100 possessions, rank 308. Marist's net rating of 0.5 ranks 244, which is hardly strong, but it sits on the better side of this matchup.

Marist has its own problems. Its offensive rating of 101.5 ranks 287, and it turns the ball over on 21.7% of possessions, while Lehigh's defence forces turnovers on 16.1% of possessions. Marist's 50% effective field-goal percentage ranks 232 but is well above Lehigh's. Marist is also shooting 38.2% from three, a figure that could settle down over a longer sample. On defence, Marist allows 101 points per 100 possessions, rank 183, against 108.1, rank 255, for Lehigh.

Neither side has an injury to account for, and both come off five days of rest after losses: Marist 61-63 on the road, Lehigh 55-65 at home. Over the last three games Dywane Chess has averaged 16 points for Marist, with Jadin Collins-Roberts at 12.7 points in 30.7 minutes. For Lehigh, Edouard Benoit is at 14.3 points and Joshua Ingram at 13.

The price has moved toward the home side, but only modestly. The spread opened at Lehigh -1.5, and the moneyline implied probability for Lehigh went from 57.4% to 59.5%, both small moves. Lehigh holds 82% of moneyline bets and 90% of the money, so the move followed the crowd in the ordinary direction. That support does not line up with the team numbers, which favour Marist on offensive rating and net rating. Three games is thin evidence either way.

The total sits at 133.5, unchanged from the open, despite 88% of bets and 84% of money on the Over. The streaks point the other way: Lehigh has gone under in 7 straight games overall and 6 straight at home, while Marist has gone over in 3 straight on the road after a loss. Marist averages 70.3 points per game and Lehigh 64.3, and Lehigh's offence is the weak point in the matchup. Those streaks describe what has happened, not what comes next.