Loyola Marymount's Hot Start Meets Troy's Struggles, but the Price Barely Separates Them

Two games of data point one way and the price points another. Loyola Marymount has been dominant in a tiny sample and Troy has struggled, yet the Lions are favoured by only 1.5 at Trojan Arena, with the moneyline at Troy Trojans -104 and Loyola Marymount Lions -122.

The early numbers are lopsided. Loyola Marymount averages 98.5 points per game, rank 17, and carries a net rating of 32.4 points per 100 possessions, rank 91. Troy scores 92.8 points per 100 possessions, rank 312, and allows 118.6, rank 309, for a net rating of -25.8, rank 325. Loyola Marymount's last game was a 102-50 home win, while Troy lost 68-91 on the road.

Shooting explains much of it. Loyola Marymount's effective field-goal percentage is 58.6%, rank 61, against 44.5%, rank 287, for Troy. Both teams lean on the three-ball, with attempt rates of 43.5% for Loyola Marymount and 45.4% for Troy, but the Lions make 38.1% of theirs and Troy makes 29.6%. Loyola Marymount also recovers 32.4% of its own misses, against 22.4% for Troy. Zion Sensley has scored 21 points per game over the Lions' last two games, while Donovan Oday is the top scorer among Troy's five most-used players at 14.

Caution is warranted. Each team has played only two games, so ranks among roughly 365 Division I teams can swing quickly, and a 102-50 win may say as much about the opponent as about the Lions. The only recent meeting, a 74-63 Loyola Marymount win at home last November, adds little beyond the fact that the Lions have beaten Troy before.

Neither number has moved. The spread is where it opened at Loyola Marymount -1.5, with Troy at -115 and Loyola Marymount at -108. The total is unchanged at 148.5, with both sides at -112. Pace gives the total some tension: Loyola Marymount plays 78.6 possessions per game, rank 27, while Troy plays 68.7, rank 177. All of Loyola Marymount's games this season have gone over the closing total, compared with half of Troy's.

Both teams have recent cover problems: Loyola Marymount has failed to cover four straight and Troy three straight, and Troy is also on a three-game losing streak. Those runs describe the past and carry little weight alongside a two-game sample. Neither team reports an injury.

Overall, the statistics favour Loyola Marymount clearly, while a near pick'em price suggests the market is discounting two games of results. Both readings are defensible, and the sample is too small to settle the disagreement.