Quakers Laid 6 After a 42-Point Loss: Outlier or Real Problem?

The central question at the Palestra is how much to read into one ugly game. The Quakers lost 70-112 on the road in their only outing, yet they are still favoured by 6 over the Bison, who are 1-1 and won their last game 94-83 on the road. The price suggests the market is heavily discounting the Quakers' opener, and the game turns on whether that opener was an outlier.

The Quakers' numbers from that game are extreme. Their net rating is -47.6 points per 100 possessions, rank 357. Their offensive rating is 82.3, rank 343, and their effective field-goal percentage is 34.9%, rank 333. Defensively they allowed 129.9 points per 100 possessions, rank 342. That is one game, played away from home, so these figures describe a single night more than they describe a team.

The Bison have only two games, which is also thin. They score 78 points per game, rank 73, with an offensive rating of 116.6, rank 151. Their defensive rating of 113.1 is rank 278, a soft spot. Cam Gillus carries the heaviest load at 37 minutes and 16.5 points per game over those two games, and Cedric Taylor III adds 19 points in 28.5 minutes. For the Quakers, Michael Zanoni scored 16 in 25 minutes and Lucas Lueth scored 14 in 31 in the opener. Neither team reports an injury.

Style may matter more than talent here. The Quakers played at 85.6 possessions per game, rank 2, while the Bison play at 67.7, rank 186. The Quakers protected the ball, with a turnover rate of 10.6%, but the Bison force turnovers on 18.3% of possessions. The Bison also recover 43.8% of their own misses, against 25.4% for the Quakers. If the Bison slow the game and win the glass, the opener looks less like an aberration.

The market has barely moved. The Quakers are -6 at -110, after opening at -6.5, a small move toward the Bison. The total is 156.5, down from 157.5, also a small move. The moneyline is Quakers -267 and Bison +199, essentially unchanged from the open. None of this adds information beyond the opening price.

The streaks point in different directions. The Quakers have four straight home covers, four straight home wins and four straight home games under the total, while the Bison have covered four straight on the road after a win. These describe past results and fit awkwardly beside the Quakers' 0-1 record and scoring margin of -42 points per game. The Quakers have also gone over the total in three straight games overall, which cuts against their home under run. The evidence is thin and conflicting: the market still prices a home favourite, while the only hard data on the Quakers is very poor.