Northwestern's Offense Against DePaul's Defense: Is the Road Favourite Priced Correctly?

Two unbeaten teams meet at Welsh-Ryan Arena, and the price has not budged: DePaul is a 1.5-point road favourite, exactly where it opened. Northwestern won last year's meeting 81-79 at DePaul. The central question is whether DePaul's small favouritism reflects anything real, because each team has played only three games and the season ranks can swing quickly.

The efficiency numbers point toward Northwestern. The Wildcats have an offensive rating of 126.1 points per 100 possessions, rank 63, and an effective field-goal percentage of 57.8%, rank 70. DePaul sits at 114.3, rank 165, and 53.2%, rank 157. DePaul's best case is defence: 90.8 points allowed per 100 possessions, rank 87, against Northwestern's 95.4, rank 127. Net rating still favours Northwestern, 30.6 at rank 89 against 23.6 at rank 118. That is the opposite of how the spread is set.

Style adds a wrinkle. DePaul takes 54.9% of its field-goal attempts from three and hits 35.8%. Northwestern's opponents have shot only 26.9% from three. Northwestern also protects the ball, with a 12.8% turnover rate, and forces turnovers on 21.2% of opponent possessions. DePaul turns it over on 16.1% of its possessions. DePaul's counter is getting to the line: its free-throw rate is .416 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, against Northwestern's .349.

On the floor, Northwestern's scoring runs through its guards. Jake West is averaging 21.3 points in 34 minutes over the last three games, and LA Pratt is at 18.3 in 34 minutes. Angelo Ciaravino leads the team at 35 minutes. DePaul's production is more spread out. Koree Cotton averages 12.7 points and Ade Popoola 12.3, and Popoola leads the rotation at 30.7 minutes. DePaul's five most-used players are all guards.

The total is 140.5, unchanged from the open, with the Over at -115 and the Under at -109. Northwestern plays slowly, at 62.6 possessions per game, rank 278. DePaul plays at 69.1, rank 193. Northwestern has gone under the total in six straight home games, and none of its three games this season has gone over. DePaul's games have gone over 33.3% of the time. Streaks describe what has happened rather than what comes next, but they fit Northwestern's slower tempo.

Northwestern has covered eight straight times overall and is 3-0 against the spread this season. DePaul is 1-2. The moneyline is Northwestern +103 and DePaul -128, essentially unchanged from the open. With no move in the spread, total or moneyline, the price reads as a close game. Northwestern's efficiency, ball security and cover streak sit against a market that still prefers DePaul slightly. Three games of data cannot settle that disagreement.