Cornell's three-point volume meets a St. Bonaventure team that controls the glass

Cornell visits Reilly Center as a road underdog of 8 points, in a game between two teams that have barely started their seasons: Cornell has played 3 games, St. Bonaventure 2. They have not met in the last 400 days, and neither team reports an injury. The central question is whether Cornell's volume three-point offense can hold up against a Bonnies side that rebounds its own misses and defends at a better rank.

Cornell's profile is built on the perimeter. Its three-point attempt rate is 53.7% of field-goal attempts, and it is making 35.6% of them, which supports 83 points per game, rank 65. The defence is more ordinary: 71.7 points allowed per game, rank 75, and a defensive rating of 97.3, rank 155. Opponents have shot just 25% from three against the Big Red, a figure drawn from only three games.

St. Bonaventure allows 64 points per game, rank 45, and scores 79.5, rank 79. Its three-point attempt rate is only 29.4%, though it has made 40% of its threes. The clearest stylistic edges are on the glass and at the line: a 39.7% offensive rebound rate and a free-throw rate of .370, against Cornell's 32.5% and .325. Zach Philipkoski has averaged 22 points per game over the last 2 games, and Benjamin Bill, the center, 12.5.

On the ratings, the Bonnies rate higher: net rating of 24, rank 123, against Cornell's 17.3, rank 164. Both sets of numbers rest on tiny samples, though. Cornell's last game was a 99-59 home win, and St. Bonaventure's was an 88-49 road win. Blowouts this early in the season can reflect the opponent as much as the team. Rest is close to even, with Cornell at 3 days and the Bonnies at 4.

The market is quiet. The spread opened at St. Bonaventure -8 and sits there, priced -107 on the Bonnies and -110 on Cornell. The moneyline is St. Bonaventure -349, Cornell +249, essentially unchanged. The total is 154.5, also unchanged, with the Over at -114 and the Under at -104.

The total is where the evidence conflicts. Cornell's pace of 73.1 possessions per game, rank 93, and its 83 points per game point toward scoring, while the Bonnies play slower at 67.7 possessions, rank 204, allow 64 points per game, and have gone over the total in 0% of their games this season. They also carry a streak of 4 straight games going under the total, a run that includes games before this season. Cornell's games have gone over 50% of the time. Streaks describe what has happened rather than what comes next, and with 2 and 3 games played none of this is strong evidence.