San José State's Shooting Against Alabama State's Offense: Does the 11.5-Point Spread Fit?

San José State is an 11.5-point home favourite over Alabama State, a price that is exactly where it opened. The central question is whether a Spartans offense built on shooting can overwhelm an Alabama State offense that has struggled to score efficiently. Both teams are 1-2, so everything here rests on three games apiece, which is thin evidence.

The shooting gap is the clearest separator. San José State's effective field-goal percentage is 62.9%, rank 10, helped by 40.3% from three on a 44.2% three-point attempt rate. Alabama State's effective field-goal percentage is 41.7%, rank 349, and its offensive rating of 92.1 points per 100 possessions ranks 337. Alabama State's net rating is -19.4 per 100 possessions, rank 328, while San José State's is -0.7, rank 247.

The Spartans are not a clean profile, though. Their defensive rating is 112.3 points allowed per 100 possessions, rank 295, and opponents have shot 57.9% effective field-goal. They also turn the ball over on 25.1% of possessions, which hands away shots. Alabama State has some routes to points that do not depend on making jumpers: a 38.5% offensive rebound rate and a .365 free-throw rate. Its own defence is shaky too, with a defensive rating of 111.4, rank 287, and opponents hitting 45.5% from three against it.

The backcourts drive both teams. Over the last three games, Joey Chammaa has averaged 19.3 points and Mekhi Mason 19 points for San José State. Paul McMillan IV leads Alabama State at 15.7 points and 33.3 minutes per game. Neither team has a reported injury, so these rotations should look as they have recently.

The total is 159.5, up from 158.5, a small move toward the Over. Both teams' games have gone over the closing total this season, and San José State has 12 straight overs overall and 6 straight at home. Pace is nearly identical, 73.6 possessions per game (rank 81) for San José State and 73.1 (rank 87) for Alabama State. Alabama State's overs have come more from what it allows, 78.7 points per game, than from what it scores, 69.7. The moneyline is essentially unchanged at San José State -746 and Alabama State +473.

The evidence agrees that San José State has the better offense and the better net rating by a wide margin. It conflicts on whether that translates to a margin as large as 11.5. The Spartans' defence and turnover rate give an opponent openings, while Alabama State's offensive efficiency is among the weakest in Division I. With three games each, none of these numbers is settled.